{"id":31,"date":"2018-10-08T21:34:05","date_gmt":"2018-10-08T20:34:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/wordpress\/?p=31"},"modified":"2019-03-31T20:32:15","modified_gmt":"2019-03-31T19:32:15","slug":"do-you-play-lotteries-in-your-life-or-you-have-control-over-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/do-you-play-lotteries-in-your-life-or-you-have-control-over-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Do you play lotteries in your life, or you have control over it?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chance plays a significant role\nin our lives. At our birth, chance determines what genes we get (which in turn\ndetermines some of our physical abilities, disease predisposition, etc), as\nwell as what family and country we are born in. Chance determines, for sure,\nalmost entirely the first 10-15 years of our childhood. Before we can acquire\nskills to take control of our life by making mindful choices (which might\nhappen, at best, when we are 15-20 years old), our life is left to the mercy of\nchance. The chance influences the important period of our early development and\ntherefore shapes us as human beings. That is also exactly the time, by the way,\nwhen our beliefs and habits are being formed, at least for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once and if we start making\nchoices ourselves, we get some control over our life. Ideally, we would like to\nhave a total control over our lives. That is, we would find a good job which\nmakes us happy, brings us good compensation, and that compensation would\nincrease from time to time gradually. In addition, the people who surround us\nare caring towards and they are also loved by us. Then, we die happily or even\ndon\u2019t die at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, that process is limited\nby two important factors. First of all, it is limited by the amount of\nresources we have. For example, if we have a lot of money, we can make a lot of\nchoices relatively quickly. We can choose and change where we live, what\neducation we get, what job to choose, what diet to have, how to keep our body\nin shape, and so on. The less resources we have, let it be money or willpower,\nthe less choice we have or the harder and\nlonger it takes to make it.<\/em> The second factor of why we have limited control over our lives,\nis the uncertainty in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That uncertainty exists because\nof other two reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Each human being is only a tiny\nbit in this world. There is so much else that is controlled by others and by\nnature itself.<\/li>
  2. There is so much we don\u2019t know.\nThat is, even if could control it, we often don\u2019t know or are not trained how\nto do so.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    In other words, the ideal\nscenario of us controlling our life is not possible. We can do it only up to\nsome extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Uncertainty or chance affects not\njust some parts of our life, but it affects every moment of it. To describe\nthat effect, we can use a word lottery<\/em>. A lottery is a situation when\nthe success or outcome is determined by chance. As we figured out above, any\naction we do is a lottery and bears uncertainty, and the case for that is the\ntwo reasons listed above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There are two types of lotteries:\nthe lotteries with positive and with negative outcomes, on\naverage<\/em>. A\npositive lottery is a lottery which if you (and others) play many times, will\nbring some positive net returns. For example, if you study hard and work hard,\nmost probably you will be able to grow professionally and increase your\ncompensation. There is no guarantee that your particular study or job right now\nwill bring something positive (e.g. there is always a small chance that you\nmight be fired any time, or the company you work for will bankrupt, or you will\nget a very hard question on the exam and fail it), but if you keep doing it\nmany times persistently and with optimism in your heart, you most likely\nwill get there<\/em> (although, again, no guarantees). There are\nalso negative lotteries, which if you play multiple times, will lead to you\n\u201closing\u201d something. Often we don\u2019t know whether the lottery would be positive\nor negative: e.g., historically the stock markets usually bring positive\nreturns long-term outcomes, but there is no guarantee that will be the case in\nthe future, even \u201con average\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There are many reasons why we,\npeople, play negative lotteries. You could argue that the biggest lottery\neveryone is playing is the life itself, with a very big loss so far guaranteed\nfor everyone which is called death.  Obviously, it depends on what and how\nyou measure the outcome. If you measure it as your family or community or ideas\nand projects succeeding after your end, there are good strategies to ensure\nyour positive returns and legacy, on average. Another example of a negative\nlottery is something like being hit by a bus, killed in an aeroplane crash or\nbeing innocently put into jail long-term, or even worse, life-term. It is most\nprobably why any news about that are so important for all of us, and that is\nwhy we, as the society, are trying to minimise unfair sentences and aeroplane\ncrashes: none of us wants to get the \u201cwinning\u201d \u201clottery ticket\u201d on that one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The important thing is to\nappreciate that there are some \u201cnegative\u201d lotteries no matter what we do or no\nmatter how we try to control it. It is important to just accept them and their\noutcomes. There are things that might happen to us all that are out of our\ncontrol, at least partially. All you can do is to appreciate that such\n\u201clotteries\u201d exist and happen to us every day. The acceptance helps you to be\nmindful and focus on another important thing, which is to continue looking for\nand participating in the \u201clotteries\u201d with good positive outcomes or, at least,\nwith minimum negative outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Another important thing is to\nappreciate that people become or not become very<\/em> successful partially due to\na luck or chance. We aim to become successful, we do our best for it, but it\nsimply might not happen for some of us. I know it is a depressing thought and I\ndon\u2019t suggest to focus on it too much every day, but it is important to be\nmindful about it. Even if we play in a \u201cpositive outcome\u201d lottery where each of\none hundred people willingly<\/em> and with\nawareness<\/em> puts\nin extra 10,000 pounds (not necessarily in a liquid form of money, but e.g. in\nthe form of labour), and there is a 1 in 100 chance to win 2 million pounds\n(let\u2019s say the product of our labour has been sold to a customer for 4 million\npounds, with 2 million being distributed to us proportionally as our wages and\n2 million being distributed to us in a \u201clottery\u201d manner as far as everybody was\nwilling to do so), then only one of us will become a millionaire in such\n\u201clottery\u201d but everybody else will \u201cjust\u201d receive 20,000 pounds of wages. (Note\nthat it is a different topic of why and how fairly the profits are distributed\nin business and society. An example above just illustrates that all you need to\nhave a chance becoming a millionaire, is to participate in a \u00a31,000 lottery\nwith 1,000 people, or a \u00a310,000 lottery with \u201cjust\u201d 100 people.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As for the positive lotteries,\nthere are obvious ways to find them and increase your chances of winning them.\nThe ways include good education (both informal and formal), good connections\n(which you can acquire and grow), good health and mental health, and of course\nthe optimism in your heart and desire to innovate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As for the negative lotteries, it\nis the best to avoid them of course, but sometimes it is not possible or not\ndesirable. The obvious example of a lottery which has the negative average\noutcome (i.e. \u201cnegative expected value\u201d) but which is played by the most of us\nis a \u201cregular\u201d lottery like national lotteries, EuroMillions in Europe or\nPowerBall in the US. While we are well aware that it is almost impossible to\nwin a jackpot or any huge piece of it, we play anyway. In some sense, it is\njustifiable, because for many of us it is the quickest and<\/em> most realistic way to get a\nhold on a such huge amount of money. It brings us some hope and a tiny\npossibility of huge wealth. While probably it is justifiable to play<\/em> a lottery like that from\ntime to time, it is more important to be focused on seeking and working on\nwinning a positive \u201clottery\u201d, be it a salary increase, start-up success,\nrevenue from a book you authored or a spiritual happiness you get by serving\nthe community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If you decide to play a regular,\n\u201cnegative average outcome\u201d lottery, that is fine. Just make sure you carefully\nallocate a specific, small<\/em> part of your income for that, and keep to\nthat. Also, choose wisely what lottery you would like to play. For example, do\nyou really need a jackpot of 120 million pounds but your chance of winning it\nis like that only one of 150 million people will get it, or you would rather\nsuffice and boost your life by a chance of winning 100,000 pounds with a chance\nof 1 in 150,000 people? Another question is whether you would rather play a\nroulette game in a casino with the house taking only 3-10% of players money, or\nyou would play a scratch card or a state lottery which takes 40-60% of\ngamblers\u2019 money. That is, if you decide to play it, why not to pay\nfrom your pocket<\/em> for\nthe smartest option? (Obviously, there is an important psychological catch of\nplaying in a casino: people are probably more likely to get addicted and spend\nmuch more there rather than by buying a lottery ticket in a grocery shop on\nspare change every week.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Is it okay to play a lottery?\nProbably, yes in a responsible way. It is, anyway, the \u201cfastest\u201d possible route\nto a huge wealth (even to becoming a billionaire with the recent trends of\nPowerBall in the US), which is a dream of almost anyone. Is it the best way?\nProbably not: there are so many other ways to get resources which you need by\nstudying and working smart and hard, being healthy and happy, being mindful and\noptimistic for the rest of your life. If you want to increase your chances, you\nalways can improve your skills, look for an opportunity for a professional or\nspiritual growth, write a blog post or a book, or start carefully doing a real\nestate business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A good reminder of the importance\nof persistent, long-term growth is a well-known example of the compound<\/em> interest. In a table below,\nyou see that if you invest 8,500 pounds every time for 5% annually (which is\nhard but possible, even if the inflation is taking into the account), then in\n40 years you will get a million pounds:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Alternatively, if a family<\/em> (or a group of people like\nan organisation) finds a way to invest 10,000 pounds for 3% annually (again,\nafter the inflation is taking into account), then in 505 years that family\ndynasty will be a trillionaire:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Obviously, it is not easy at all\nto maintain both the structure of a group of people as well as average growth\nat 3% average for such long amount of time, but it is definitely not\nimpossible. It is also important to stress out that in any long-term\ninvestments it is expected to have some months or years of negative outcomes;\nall you need to do is to ensure that the average return is positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, to answer the question in the\ntitle of this article, we do play lotteries every day in our life. The only\ndifference is whether we wisely choose what lotteries to play or we don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Copyright\n(excluding the purchased images), is by me. If you would like to share, please,\njust link to this page. Anything above does not constitute any advice, of\ncourse.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Thank you very much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Chance plays a significant role in our lives. At our birth, chance determines what genes we get (which…\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-31","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chance"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31\/revisions\/77"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yuraperov.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}